27054 1 3 econsultancy_xml <p>The keyphrase in that opening sentence is <em>‘going to be’</em>. It has always been this way. The forecasts for all things mobile have always been very, erm, enthusiastic. And yet mobile never seems to quite do it.</p> <p>But here we are in 2008 and there actually some signs that we’re reaching a kind of tipping point. Not by revenue, but by <em>actual potential</em>, because widespread mobile internet usage is the key to attracting the big ad dollars and there are lots handsets in the market that are geared up for internet access.</p> <p>So, for the purposes of keeping a record, let’s look at how big this beast is going to become…</p> <p> <strong>Analysts’ Forecasts – Mobile Advertising</strong> </p> <ul> <li>ABI Research: $19 billion by 2011 (global).</li> <li>Gartner: $14.6 billion in 2011 (global).</li> <li>Strategy Analytics: $14.4 billion by 2011 (global).</li> <li>Informa: $11.35 billion by 2011 (global).</li> <li>EJL Wireless Research: $9.5 billion by 2011 (global).</li> <li>eMarketer: $5 billion by 2011 (global).Sterling Market Intelligence: $5.08 billion by 2012 (US + Western Europe). </li> <li>Jupiter: $2.9 billion by 2011 (global).</li> <li>Kelsey Group: search ads to reap $1.4 billion in 2012 (US).</li> <li>Forrester: less than $1 billion by 2012.</li> </ul> <p> <em>And here’s the kicker…</em> </p> <p>Thomson Financial: <strong>Google’s 2009 mobile ad revenue alone will reach $21.31 billion</strong>.</p> <p>Wow! $21bn, <em>next year</em>? Thompson polled a bunch of (possibly crack-fuelled) analysts to reach that giddy estimate. </p> <p>For the record, Google as an entire business generated around $16bn in 2007. So that $21bn ‘forecast’ is probably 10-100 times more optimistic than it should be. Anybody fancy a bet? </p> <p>The problem, as I see it, is that Google’s all-conquering text ads are not going to work as well on mobile as they do online. I’ll write a bit more on that in the coming days.</p> <FormattedContent xmlns="http://www.e-consultancy.com/schema/formattedContent/"> <Paragraph>The keyphrase in that opening sentence is <Quote>‘going to be’</Quote>. It has always been this way. The forecasts for all things mobile have always been very, erm, enthusiastic. And yet mobile never seems to quite do it.</Paragraph> <Paragraph>But here we are in 2008 and there actually some signs that we’re reaching a kind of tipping point. Not by revenue, but by <Quote>actual potential</Quote>, because widespread mobile internet usage is the key to attracting the big ad dollars and there are lots handsets in the market that are geared up for internet access.</Paragraph> <Paragraph>So, for the purposes of keeping a record, let’s look at how big this beast is going to become…</Paragraph> <Paragraph> <Emphasis>Analysts’ Forecasts – Mobile Advertising</Emphasis> </Paragraph> <List Type="Disc"> <ListItem>ABI Research: $19 billion by 2011 (global).</ListItem> <ListItem>Gartner: $14.6 billion in 2011 (global).</ListItem> <ListItem>Strategy Analytics: $14.4 billion by 2011 (global).</ListItem> <ListItem>Informa: $11.35 billion by 2011 (global).</ListItem> <ListItem>EJL Wireless Research: $9.5 billion by 2011 (global).</ListItem> <ListItem>eMarketer: $5 billion by 2011 (global).Sterling Market Intelligence: $5.08 billion by 2012 (US + Western Europe). </ListItem> <ListItem>Jupiter: $2.9 billion by 2011 (global).</ListItem> <ListItem>Kelsey Group: search ads to reap $1.4 billion in 2012 (US).</ListItem> <ListItem>Forrester: less than $1 billion by 2012.</ListItem> </List> <Paragraph> <Quote>And here’s the kicker…</Quote> </Paragraph> <Paragraph>Thomson Financial: <Emphasis>Google’s 2009 mobile ad revenue alone will reach $21.31 billion</Emphasis>.</Paragraph> <Paragraph>Wow! $21bn, <Quote>next year</Quote>? Thompson polled a bunch of (possibly crack-fuelled) analysts to reach that giddy estimate. </Paragraph> <Paragraph>For the record, Google as an entire business generated around $16bn in 2007. So that $21bn ‘forecast’ is probably 10-100 times more optimistic than it should be. Anybody fancy a bet? </Paragraph> <Paragraph>The problem, as I see it, is that Google’s all-conquering text ads are not going to work as well on mobile as they do online. I’ll write a bit more on that in the coming days.</Paragraph> </FormattedContent> 2008-03-07T14:26:00+00:00 1 1 econsultancy_xml <p> <strong>Mobile advertising is going to be big. <em>Really</em> big. Or at least that’s what the analysts are clamouring to tell us, with a succession of bullish forecasts having been released since the dawn of time. And they keep on coming.</strong> </p> <FormattedContent xmlns="http://www.e-consultancy.com/schema/formattedContent/"> <Paragraph> <Emphasis>Mobile advertising is going to be big. <Quote>Really</Quote> big. Or at least that’s what the analysts are clamouring to tell us, with a succession of bullish forecasts having been released since the dawn of time. And they keep on coming.</Emphasis> </Paragraph> </FormattedContent> false 2251 365209 Mobile advertising research – analysts’ forecasts false 2008-03-07T14:26:00+00:00 mobile-advertising-research-analysts-forecasts 2009-04-30T01:45:08+01:00 2009-04-30T01:45:08+01:00 843