The blogosphere has changed. The euphoria that marked the rise of the
blogosphere has been muted by reality (also known as the global economic meltdown). The passion
that characterized the most prominent bloggers has given way to the
problems that characterize "success."
Even I'm disappointed in the
changes that have taken place in the blogosphere, despite the fact that my role as a D-list contrarian blogger was to point out the inevitable bust that was coming.
There's a new buzzphrase floating around - the "real-time web."
I won't mention the service this buzzword is often attached to. There's already far too much discussion of it.
Twitter's all the rage right now. In social media and digital marketing circles, Twitter seems to be taking over the world.
I have a different perspective: it's not. For all of Twitter's growth, I believe it has yet to achieve what it needs to achieve to become a viable marketing platform for businesses.
I've discussed the economics of blogging numerous times in the past. Can
blogging be a viable career? Can the blogosphere mint hoards of new
millionaires? These are all questions that many have asked over the
past several years as the blogosphere has grown in size and prominence.
Despite the fact that I have been able to turn my blogging activities
into a bit of cash, I've remained skeptical about blogging as a
business and as a career, which is why the man behind Drama 2.0 still calls 'international business' his primary line of work.
He may be selling books, but reality has not been kind to Chris Anderson. His theory that the future of business is selling more of less as presented in his best-selling book, The Long Tail, is refuted by observational data.
And his latest
novel idea - that the future of business is $0.00 - looks downright
absurd in today's economy. That's the thesis behind his upcoming book, Free. In fact, it's so absurd that Anderson had to address the elephant in
the room in a recent guest piece in The Wall Street Journal.
Metrics matter. Every online publisher and every digital marketer knows this.
In a new article, BusinessWeek's Sarah Lacy asks the question: is the 'unique user' metric an endangered species?
I've been critical of Chris Anderson's long tail 'theory', which argued that "the future of business is selling less of more".
The quantitative evidence suggests that Anderson's thesis was a bit too aggressive. In most industries, from retail to music, the 'head' is
still as important as it was decades ago.
Most of us tend to root for the underdog. There's something powerful in
the thought that the most disadvantaged can muster up the strength to
overcome a significant challenge or a more potent competitor.
Few, however, seemed to be rooting for Palm, the company that created the market for the smart phone.
Kevin Kelleher of GigaOM believes that: "2009 may smile on disruptive
startups." In his opinion, "There is, however, a way for startups to
not only stand out in this recession, but thrive in it: By being as
disruptive as possible."
'Disruption' is one of those words Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, VCs and observers have come to love.
With the New Year right around the corner and this being my last post for the year, I figured it was time to go on record with my predictions for 2009.
The last half of 2008 has been interesting and changed the dynamic in the internet economy as financial markets collapsed and the global economy faltered. This will set the tone for 2009.