According to a new study from Veronis Suhler Stevenson, spending on media and communications is set to outpace economic growth in the next four years. New media technologies will be leading that growth.
But before you get too excited, Veronis does not expect an advertising rebound soon. Which means that traditional media businesses are still in trouble.
Veronis predicts there will be a 6.1% average annual growth for the media and communications industry between 2009 and 2014, compared to an estimated 5.8% average annual growth rate for U.S. GDP. This year total communications spending is on track to grow 3.5%.
Veronis thinks the entertainment and leisure sector growth will be driven by an increasing demanc for subscription TV content. By 2014, the sector will grow to $353.9 billion.
In the next four years, industry growth will be driven by new mobile services and applications that let people watch or listen to what they want whenever they want.
John Suhler, a partner and co-founder at Veronis Suhler Stevenson, tells BusinessWeek:
“Everything that is an opportunity for consumers to show their preferences is growing faster than economic growth."
New media companies, which Veronis calls pure-play consumer Internet and mobile services, are forecast to increase at an annual rate of 15% between 2009 and 2014.
But that growth won't necessarily be matched by a rebound in advertising. According to Veronis:
"Growth in new media will be partially offset by continued weakness in advertising. Marketers will seek more targeted media opportunities as opposed to traditional advertising media such as broadcast radio and magazines."
In contrast, traditional consumer advertising media is forecast to have a slow growth rate of 2.2% annually to $159.3 billion in 2014. Marketing media, which include consumer promotions, is set to have the slowest growth at 1.8% annually over the period.
But targeted media, which includes direct mail, branded entertainment and business-to-business media, will grow at a 7.3% clip to $265.6 billion.