A post by Pranam Kolari on ebiquity’s blog claims that the English-speaking blogosphere has reached its peak.
This echoes predictions made by Gartner in December that the blogosphere will top out this year at 100m blogs, and start to decline thereafter.
At the time, Gartner based its prediction on the assumption that all those people who intend to experiment with a blog have already done so, and many have decided to move on to something else.
Kolari’s claims are based on even shakier foundations – a study by the University of Maryland in Baltimore, which looked at occurrences of the word “I” in blog postings.
The point made by ebiquity is that the number of blog posts containing “I” has remained more or less constant over the past year, at around 400,000 per day. So this, it says, means that the English speaking blogosphere has reached its peak.
This seems a bizarre method of measurement as it fails to take into account the number of blog posts that don’t contain the term. For example, the last ten posts on this blog have been written without using the word.
There is also plenty of room for growth in countries that have yet to reach full broadband penetration.
In addition, as peaks in blogging have often accompanied big news events, as Technorati’s figures suggest, who is to say that there won’t be an explosion in blogging activity to accompany the US Presidential elections next year?