Money arrowZenith Optimedia’s latest ad spend forecast delivers some stats most
marketers are well aware of: Online ad spending is growing, while newspaper
and magazine budgets keep shrinking. But there are definitely some interesting tidbits.

For example, increased spending on social media and online video are
fueling growth in display. New tech advancements like HD and PVR
are making TV even more attractive to advertisers.

Increased ad spending around the globe 

First a read on the global ad market overall:

  • Global ad spending will top $449 billion by year end, up 4.9%
  • Advertisers have clearly regained their confidence, as ad expenditures have recovered more rapidly than expected in every region this year
  • The recovery is expected to continue at a “steady” pace, with an increase of 4.6% in 2011 and 5.2% in 2012

Online is growing, but TV is still king

Looking into specific ad segments, it’s clear that advertiser spending will follow consumer shifts toward digital content consumption (both at home and on the go). 

Zenith Optimedia ad spend by category

  • Declines in print readership will lead to a 2% decline in advertiser spending on newspapers and magazines between 2010 and 2013
  • Three markets – TV (19%), cinema (19%) and outdoor (18%) – will see double-digit growth. Zenith says the spending will be fueled largely by tech advancements: 

These three media have benefited from technological improvements that have encouraged more consumption (such as HDTV and 3D movies) and increased their visibility and impact (such as digital outdoor displays).

  • TV continues to reign as the “stand-out success” of the last five years. Per the forecast:

Bigger and higher-quality displays, more channels delivered by digital television, and the convenience of PVRs mean people are watching more television than ever.

Drilling down into online

Still, even with TV’s dominance, growth in online ad spending continues to surge. Global online ad spend will top $91 billion in 2013, an increase of 48%. 

A look into the segments defined by Zenith shows that search will continue to remain the leader – but that display (including online video and social) will show the strongest growth.

Zenith Optimedia online ad spend by category

  • Display ads will take more than a third (33.9%) of all internet ad spending this year, and grow to 35% marketshare in 2013. That’s a sharp contrast from when display’s marketshare fell from 36.2% in 2006 to 33.6% in 2009.
  • Increased usage of social media and video is fueling this boost in display ad spending – but there may be considerable under-reporting of campaign spending in these new areas. Per the report:

The importance of the internet to advertisers is understated by these figures, because as well as creating new opportunities in paid media, it has greatly expanded brands’ abilities to talk to consumers via social media, both ‘owned’ (on brands’ own websites and microsites, YouTube channels, Twitter and Facebook accounts and so on) and ‘earned’ (conversations consumers have on forums, blogs, etc).

These activities can be extremely effective, and many advertisers have embraced them enthusiastically, but most of them will never be picked up in a survey of ad expenditure